SpaceX Is Now Down 36% in a Month. Would You Be Better Off With Rocket Lab or ASTS SpaceMobile?
SpaceX Is Now Down 36% in a Month. Would You Be Better Off With Rocket Lab or ASTS SpaceMobile?
David Moadel Fri, July 31, 2026 at 6:17 PM UTC
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Rocket LabQuick Read -
RKLB and ASTS both dropped roughly 35% over the same month as SPCX, meaning sector rotation within space stocks offers no margin of safety.
LUNR and PL fell over 35% despite posting strong recent revenue growth, as traders rotated broadly out of speculative space positions.
Analyst Dan Ives puts 80-90% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX deal in 2027, but no major space stock currently earns a trailing profit.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is down 36% over the past month, leaving investors who bought near the post-IPO peak with steep losses. The selloff has sparked a natural question: would switching into other space names like Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) or AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) offer a safer path forward?
The short answer is not necessarily. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 36% over the same one-month window, while AST SpaceMobile shares are down 34%. Other pure-play space stocks have fared even worse, with Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) down 38%, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) down 43%, though Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) has fallen just 13% over the past month. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) has declined 14% in a month, underscoring that diversification within this niche does not eliminate volatility.
The Space Sector Is Moving Together, Not Apart
SpaceX stock, Rocket Lab, and AST SpaceMobile shares have all pulled back sharply from their mid-year highs as investors reassess valuations across the space economy. The correlation is not accidental: these companies operate in a capital-intensive, pre-profitability phase where sentiment and funding conditions drive price action more than near-term earnings.
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Planet Labs stock and Intuitive Machines illustrate the broader pattern. Both names posted strong revenue growth in recent quarters, yet both stocks are down more than 35% in a month as traders rotate out of speculative growth. Virgin Galactic stock has held up relatively better, but it remains a highly speculative name with no path to profitability visible on a trailing 12-month basis.
The Procure Space ETF offers exposure to a basket of space-related companies, including SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and other satellite and launch providers. However, the fund is concentrated and carries similar risks to the individual stocks, as evidenced by its 14% one-month decline.
No Margin of Safety in Swapping One Speculative Name for Another
None of the major space stocks trade at positive trailing 12-month earnings, so traditional valuation anchors like P/E ratios do not apply. SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, and Virgin Galactic all carry losses on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, leaving investors reliant on future growth narratives rather than current profitability.
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Switching from SpaceX stock to Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile doesn't necessarily improve the margin of safety. All three names face similar execution risks: launch reliability, customer concentration, regulatory hurdles, and the need to scale operations while burning cash. Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines carry additional exposure to government contracts, which can provide stability but also introduce budget and timing risks.
The Tesla-SpaceX Merger Wild Card
Some investors may find comfort in the possibility of a Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)-SpaceX merger, which could unlock value for SpaceX's shareholders. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has left the door open to combining the two companies, and prediction markets have assigned odds ranging from 33% to 74% for a deal before May 2027, depending on the timing of the survey.
However, a merger is not guaranteed to happen, and even if it does, the terms and timing remain uncertain. Analysts at Oppenheimer have called a combination plausible but do not expect it in the near term, while others like Dan Ives see an 80% to 90% probability of a deal in 2027 after SpaceX completes its IPO process. Investors should not count on this outcome as a hedge against near-term volatility.
What Investors Can Take Away
The space sector is undergoing a broad reset, and many space stocks are moving in tandem with SPCX as investors reassess the risk. The Procure Space ETF provides diversification but doesn't eliminate the fundamental volatility of the underlying names.
Investors can consider keeping their position sizes modest in space stocks. They also might watch for whether any of these companies begin to show consistent profitability or positive free cash flow, which would provide a firmer foundation for their valuations. Until then, the sector remains highly speculative, and even for those who believe in the long-term opportunity, a cautious approach is justified.
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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
Source: “AOL Money”
