Severe Weather, Including Tornado Threat, Increases In Plains From Texas To Midwest Wednesday Into The Weekend
Severe Weather, Including Tornado Threat, Increases In Plains From Texas To Midwest Wednesday Into The Weekend
Rob Shackelford Tue, March 3, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
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Severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are increasingly likely in parts of the Plains and Midwest starting Wednesday and could last into the weekend, if not early next week from Texas to parts of the upper Midwest.
Almost on cue as March arrived, we're setting up a rather stuck weather pattern that will bring multiple days in a row of at least some severe thunderstorms in the nation's mid-section.
(MORE: Beware Of March For Tornadoes, Especially Recently)
Severe Threat Timing
Tuesday
While some thunderstorms may rumble across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during the day, the main threat for a few severe thunderstorms is Tuesday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and Missouri. Large hail is the main concern with these nighttime storms.
Cities: Oklahoma City, Wichita
Wednesday
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening from parts of northern Texas into the Ozarks. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Cities: Dallas, Ft. Smith
Thursday
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening along a feature known as a dryline in parts of western Texas into western Oklahoma and perhaps southwestern Kansas. Hail larger than golf balls, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the Missouri Valley of Nebraska and Iowa.
Cities: Lubbock, Amarillo, Wichita Falls
Friday
Friday's severe weather threat may be more widespread, with more numerous supercell thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, hail and destructive winds possible from parts of Texas to Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri in the afternoon and evening.
At least some severe thunderstorms with hail are possible as far north as southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
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Cities: Dallas, Tulsa, Kansas City
This Weekend And Beyond
The story doesn't end, there.
We can't rule out some lingering strong to severe storms Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to southeast Texas.
And a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the South Sunday along and near a sagging and stalling frontal boundary.
Additional strong to severe storms are expected early next week as a strong cold front slices into the central U.S. as a strong upper-level low pressure system over northern Mexico finally gets kicked into the Plains.
Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast.
(MAPS: 7-Day US Forecast)
How Much Rain?
Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with these storms.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued level 1 out of 4 risks for heavy rainfall for Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday across parts of the Southern Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Some areas in this zone may pick up over 3 inches of rain, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur. That could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains of eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and southwest Missouri.
Soaking A Drought
These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.
Data: US Drought Monitor
We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.
(MORE: La Niña Is Fading)
A La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the Equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pushing warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the eastern region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A typical La Niña Pattern
This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.
In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is typically forced further north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
Source: “AOL Breaking”
